October 2026 Property Market Update

Overview

October was a cautious month for the housing market. Nationwide reported that UK house prices were flat in October, with annual growth slowing to 0.5%, the weakest since January 2024. The average UK home cost £273,566 on Nationwide's measure, against £278,880 at the April peak. Higher mortgage costs and expectations of a Bank Rate rise are weighing on buyer demand.

Prices in our area have held up better than the national headline. Land Registry figures for Welwyn Hatfield and Hertsmere show modest annual gains for houses, with flats slightly weaker. This update covers Hatfield, Old Hatfield, Welham Green, Brookmans Park, Essendon, Potters Bar and Welwyn Garden City.

Local pricing and activity trends

The Land Registry House Price Index is published with a lag, so its latest figures are for July 2026. In Welwyn Hatfield, which covers Hatfield, Welham Green, Brookmans Park, Essendon and Welwyn Garden City, the average price was £448,681. That is 1.64% higher than the £441,460 recorded in October 2025. Semi-detached homes rose 2.61% to £530,661, terraced homes rose 2.21% to £407,970 and detached homes rose 1.64% to £952,331. Flats and maisonettes slipped 0.26% to £245,354.

In Hertsmere, which includes Potters Bar, the average price was £548,704, up 0.29% over the same period. Detached homes rose 1.18% to £1,200,351, semi-detached homes rose 1.16% to £615,098 and terraced homes rose 0.72% to £486,991. Flats and maisonettes fell 1.46% to £291,783.

Our own estimated values for each postcode district give a more current picture. The change shown is the movement over the past twelve months.

Hatfield and Old Hatfield (AL10): average £390,000, up £5,000. Detached £775,000, semi-detached £505,000, terraced £400,000, flats £270,000.

Welham Green, Brookmans Park and Essendon (AL9): average £795,000, up £5,000. Detached £1,300,000, semi-detached £710,000, terraced £510,000, flats £390,000.

Potters Bar (EN6): average £670,000, up £20,000. Detached £1,080,000, semi-detached £665,000, terraced £520,000, flats £370,000.

Welwyn Garden City (AL7): average £395,000, unchanged. Detached £675,000, semi-detached £485,000, terraced £420,000, flats £260,000.

Welwyn Garden City (AL8): average £585,000, up £5,000. Detached £965,000, semi-detached £670,000, terraced £495,000, flats £335,000.

Sales activity is harder to read. Completed sales and price per square foot figures for October are not yet available in our data. For homes that reached Sold STC in October, the average time on market was 17 days in AL10 (one sale), 93 days in AL9 (three sales), 16 days in EN6 (four sales), 43 days in AL7 (seven sales) and 62 days in AL8 (four sales). These samples are small, so they show the range rather than a firm trend.

The lettings market had more activity to measure. The number of properties let in October was 10 in AL10, 4 in AL9, 17 in EN6, 12 in AL7 and 4 in AL8, with flats making up most of those. Average time to reach Let Agreed was 48 days in AL10, 17 days in AL9, 45 days in EN6, 27 days in AL7 and 14 days in AL8. Flats in AL10 took 59 days on average, while flats in AL8 took 17 days and flats in AL9 took 14.

Average advertised rents in October were £1,378 pcm in AL10, £3,178 pcm in AL9, £1,647 pcm in EN6, £1,396 pcm in AL7 and £1,754 pcm in AL8. The AL9 figure comes from 22 listings.

Mortgage and interest rate news

The Bank of England has held Bank Rate at 3.75% since December 2025. It held again on 17 September on a 6 to 3 vote, with three members voting for a rise to 4%. The next decision is on 5 November, and markets are pricing a quarter-point rise as the most likely outcome.

Inflation is the reason. The ONS reported on 21 October that CPI inflation rose to 3.5% in the year to September, up from 3.1% in August, driven mainly by motor fuel prices. Core inflation rose to 2.8%. The next ONS release is on 18 November.

Fixed mortgage rates moved up while Bank Rate stayed still. According to Moneyfacts, the average five-year fixed rate reached 6.00% on 5 October and the average two-year fixed rate reached 5.98%, both the highest in around three years. By 28 October they were 5.99% and 5.97%, so rates have steadied close to 6%. In early March the same averages were 4.96% and 4.84%. Moneyfacts counted nine fixed deals below 5% on 5 October, down from 1,494 at the start of September.

The Bank of England's own series, which runs to August, shows an effective rate of 4.92% on new two-year fixed mortgages at 75% loan to value, and 4.78% on five-year fixes. This is a different measure from the Moneyfacts all-market average, and it predates the October increases.

For local buyers the practical effect is a higher monthly payment on the same loan than a year ago. Nationwide says affordability has improved over the past two years because incomes have grown faster than prices, but higher rates have reversed part of that gain.

Market outlook

For sellers, pricing is the main decision. Buyers have less room in their budgets than they did in the spring, and national prices are almost 2% below the April peak. Our October time on market figures vary widely between districts and rest on small numbers, so a realistic asking price from the start is safer than relying on a quick sale.

For buyers, the decision on 5 November will move lender pricing in one direction or the other. Speak to a broker before you set a search budget, and ask what your payment would be at the current average of about 6% as well as at the best rate you can find. Deals below 5% have almost disappeared, so a mortgage offer in hand is worth having.

For landlords, October lettings were steady across the area, with 47 properties let across the five postcode districts. Buy to let borrowing costs have also risen, so check when your current fixed deal ends and what the refinance would cost.

For tenants, advertised rents in October averaged between £1,378 pcm in AL10 and £3,178 pcm in AL9. Flats in AL8 and AL9 reached Let Agreed in 14 to 17 days, while flats in AL10 took 59 days, so tenants in Hatfield have more time to compare options than those in Welwyn Garden City's AL8 district.

Sources: Spectre market data for AL10, AL9, EN6, AL7 and AL8; HM Land Registry House Price Index via Spectre; Moneyfacts; Nationwide; ONS; Bank of England.